Last month Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball had an interesting article that dealt with 2020 congressional reapportionment. Why are they doing this so early? I guess we’re already halfway to the 2020 Census already, might as well start guessing what could happen.
Crystal Ball uses data from CENSUS.gov to speculate which states could gain or lose house seats if we keep at the current rate of growth.
States to lose a US House seat:
States to gain US House seats:
Bad news for the Northeast and good news for Mid-Atlantic South/Texas. Arkansas doesn’t make the cut to gain a seat like several of it’s fellow Southern states, but luckily has grown enough not to lose a seat like it’s Appalachian cousin like West Virginia.
As of right now it looks like Arkansas won’t have to speculate about a 5th Congressional District. Again we still have 5 years to go, and we don’t know what might happen. Last decade Hurricane Katrina unexpectedly displaced a significant portion of Louisiana’s population, and caused the Pelican State to lose a congressional district.
Ultimately unless we see unprecedented growth in the next 5 years, we’re stuck at 4 congressional districts and 6 electoral votes.