Arkansas unlikely to gain or lose a US House after next Census

Last month Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball had an interesting article that dealt with 2020 congressional reapportionment. Why are they doing this so early? I guess we’re already halfway to the 2020 Census already, might as well start guessing what could happen.

Crystal Ball uses data from to speculate which states could gain or lose house seats if we keep at the current rate of growth.

States to lose a US House seat:



New York



Rhode Island

West Virginia

States to gain US House seats:

Texas (2)


North Carolina




Bad news for the Northeast and good news for Mid-Atlantic South/Texas. Arkansas doesn’t make the cut to gain a seat like several of it’s fellow Southern states, but luckily has grown enough not to lose a seat like it’s Appalachian cousin like West Virginia.

As of right now it looks like Arkansas won’t have to speculate about a 5th Congressional District. Again we still have 5 years to go, and we don’t know what might happen. Last decade Hurricane Katrina unexpectedly displaced a significant portion of Louisiana’s population, and caused the Pelican State to lose a congressional district.

Ultimately unless we see unprecedented growth in the next 5 years, we’re stuck at 4 congressional districts and 6 electoral votes.

Mark Pryor’s Farewell Address to the Senate

Proud of his career. A good U.S. Senator with a great heart for public service.

Closing quoted below. Click this link for full transcript.

In closing, let me say I loved my time with you.  I will always remember you with fondness and I will always be cheering for you.  I expect great things from you because I know you are capable of doing great things.  GOD bless the Senate and the work we do here and GOD bless the United States of America.  I yield the floor.